The system dies on a 105° afternoon. The homeowner calls whoever answers first, and price becomes the whole conversation.
HVAC play · Replacement leads
HVAC replacement leads from homes with 15-year-old systems, before they fail.
Most replacement jobs start with a breakdown and a homeowner calling three companies for quotes. Spur finds owner-occupied homes old enough to be on original equipment, sends a replacement estimate offer that explains their options, and tells you who scanned, so you're the first quote instead of the third.
Free forever plan · No card · 20 property searches a month
USPSFirst-Class
Monique Carter2716 Desert Sage CtHenderson, NV 89052Scan for a free estimate
Monique C. scanned your replacement estimate card · 9 min ago
AI-written for this owner · Mailed in 2 days
Built 2005–2011and owned 8+ years: the core replacement list
Exclusiveleads that aren't sold to three other shops
Same-daycallbacks from scan alerts
The problem
Replacement leads usually arrive as a bidding war.
Lead marketplaces often send the same replacement request to several contractors. You pay for the lead and still compete on price.
A route-wide mailer reaches 2020 builds with warranty equipment just as often as 2006 homes on their original AC.
How it works
From list to mailbox in one workflow.
Five steps from an aging-system list to a replacement estimate.
app.usespur.com
See it in Spur
An HVAC replacement list in Spur
Sample homes in one Henderson zip likely running original equipment. Names are partly masked.
Zip 89052Single-familyOwner-occupiedBuilt 2005–2011Owned 8+ yrsExclude customers
- Monique C.2716 Desert Sage Ct2,380 sq ft · built 2009Owned 14 yrsLikely original AC
- Paul & Dina V.2840 Rancho Vista Dr3,410 sq ft · built 20062 systems likelyOwned 18 yrs
- Steven H.1593 Silver Cove Ln1,920 sq ft · built 2008Owned 16 yrsSingle-story
- Alicia G.2631 Canyon Mist Ave2,760 sq ft · built 2005Owned 19 yrsPool home
- Ken W.1477 Juniper Peak Way2,150 sq ft · built 2010Owned 11 yrsLikely original AC
AI draft for Monique C. · 2716 Desert Sage Ct
Dear Monique,
Homes on Desert Sage Court were built around 2009. In Henderson's heat, an air conditioner that age has worked through 15 long summers, which is about as long as most units last here.
The worst time to replace a system is the afternoon it stops. If yours is original, we'll come out at no cost, check it, and give you a written estimate with both options: what a repair would buy you, and what a new high-efficiency system would cost with financing. Newer systems also use the refrigerants now required on new equipment, which matters if yours still runs on R-22.
Scan the code to book a 45-minute visit. If your system has years left, we'll tell you.
Luis Navarro · Silver State Cooling · NV Lic. #0081452 · (702) 555-0163
Sample data for illustration. Your results depend on your market and filters.
Playbook
How to find HVAC replacement leads before the breakdown
Replacement is where HVAC companies make their margin, and most of it is decided by timing. If the first time a homeowner thinks about a new system is the day the old one stops, they call whoever answers first, collect a few quotes, and choose on price. If they've already heard from you, read an honest explanation of their options, and know your name, you're the first call and the trusted one.
You can't see inside a house, but build year and ownership length are reliable proxies. A central AC or heat pump typically lasts 12 to 20 years and a gas furnace 15 to 20, depending on climate and maintenance. ENERGY STAR suggests considering replacement for AC and heat pumps more than 10 years old and furnaces more than 15. Homes built 2005–2011 that have kept the same owner for 8 or more years have a good chance of still running original equipment. In hot-climate markets like Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Houston, AC lifespans run toward the short end, so you can widen the build-year range.
Refrigerant changes add a real, non-salesy reason to talk. R-22 production and import ended in 2020, so older systems that still use it face expensive recharges on any leak. Since January 1, 2025, newly manufactured residential AC and heat pump systems use lower-GWP refrigerants like R-454B and R-32. Homeowners don't need a lecture, but a one-line explanation of why a big repair on an R-22 system may not be worth it is useful and builds trust.
Offer an estimate, not a sale. "Free written estimate with repair and replacement options side by side" is honest and low pressure, and it puts a comfort advisor in front of the equipment. Include financing on the card if you offer it, because replacement is a $8,000 to $20,000 decision for most households.
Expect a longer cycle than tune-up mail. Plan three touches over two to three months, call every scan back the same day, and keep non-responders on a list for the next season. Many replacement customers book the second or third time they hear from you.
20×return on a year of Spur Team from one $12,000 replacement
One heat pump replacement covers years of Spur.
- Spur Team: $49/mo billed annually = $588/yr
- 600 aging-system homes × 2 touches = 1,200 postcards at $0.94 = $1,128
- One $12,000 heat pump replacement = 20× your subscription and 7× the software and postage combined
Example math. Ticket size and close rate vary by market and system type. Run your own numbers →
One tool, not four
Spur vs. the usual way to get replacement leads
What you needThe usual waySpur
Homes likely on original equipmentShared leads after a failure✓ Built in
Exclusive lead, not sold to othersSame lead sent to several contractors✓ Built in
Replacement letter per homeGeneric financing mailer✓ Built in
Printing and mailingPrint shop and post office✓ Built in
Knowing who's interestedWaiting for the phone✓ Built in
Multi-touch follow-upCalendar reminders✓ Built in
From HVAC companies using Spur
Results from the mailbox.
“I targeted homes over 12 years old in my service area and mailed 80 AI postcards with a QR to my seasonal tune-up page. Got 22 scan alerts in two weeks and booked 14 maintenance visits. Three of those converted to full system replacements.”
FAQ
HVAC replacement lead questions
How do I find homes that need a new HVAC system?
Use build year and ownership length as proxies for system age. Owner-occupied homes built 2005–2011 and held 8+ years by the same owner are likely on original equipment. Exclude homes you've serviced recently and recent sales, where a buyer may have negotiated a new system.
Are HVAC replacement leads from Spur exclusive?
Yes. You build the list and mail it. The homeowners who scan are responding to your card, not a request sent to several contractors.
How long does an HVAC replacement campaign take to work?
Some owners scan in the first week, but replacement decisions often take a season. Plan three touches over 8 to 10 weeks and keep non-responders for the next pre-season campaign.
Should I mention R-22 or the new refrigerants on the card?
Briefly, and only as a fact. One sentence explaining that older R-22 systems face expensive recharges, and that new systems use different refrigerants, helps the homeowner decide between repair and replacement.
What close rate should I expect on replacement leads?
It depends on your market, pricing, and advisors. Track estimates booked and jobs sold per campaign in Spur, and compare it with what your shared leads produce.
Keep exploring
Related plays and guides
Start in minutes. No card required.
Be the first quote, not the third.
Pull the aging-system homes in your service area and mail your first replacement offer today. Free to start.
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